Friday, March 19, 2010

Fearless, Flawless Box Office Predictions

If the adage in real estate is "location, location, location," the adage for movies is "scheduling, scheduling, scheduling." Nothing is positioned to compete against Alice in Wonderland. Now, the rationale from the other studios is "boy howdy, look at all the money that movie is making, I'm glad we didn't open anything against it!" What they don't realize is that it's making that much money because they didn't open anything against it. In a move akin to Pepsi saying "you know, a lot of people are buying Coke, so why don't we just wait until they're done spending money on that," Hollywood often confuses wisely avoiding the first or second weekend of a big film with stupidly abandoning a whole month. What's happening right now with Alice is positive to me in one way and one way only: It's making Summer-type money in the first three weeks of March. As I've said before, if you release something people want to see, even if it's off-season, even if other things are in the theater, people will go see it. In this case, I wish people didn't want to go see Alice, but you get the idea. That's my very topical box office rant. I now return you to your predictions:

Here's how I see the weekend, haiku style:

1.) Alice in Wonderland - $38 million

Lessons can't be learned
by T. Burton and J. Depp
with this much success.

2.) The Bounty Hunter - $17 million

This looks like a turd.
Aniston's career is crap.
Hmm..."Friends" reunion?

3.) Diary of a Wimpy Kid - $15 million

The books are well known,
but the movie has no hype.
That does not bode well.

4.) Repo Men - $10 million

Jude Law has talent
but is kind of a creeper.
That won't help him here.

5.) Green Zone - $7 million

More Iraq War flop...
People would rather forget
how bad we effed up.

WILDCARD - She's Out of My League
- $6 million
Forgive me for this:
She's Out of My League...and this
is out of my list

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